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Biopure Answers Essay

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Biopure Market Potential Exercise
Suggested Solution

Question 1)   How would you revise the market potential for Hemopure?

The best four-segment solution to the usage problem includes these categories: elective surgery; emergency surgery; in field trauma; and chronic anemia.

  Current Usage Change Potential Usage
Trauma (in field) 200,000 *10 2,000,000

Currently only 10% of trauma cases get blood transfusions in the field.   With better storage potential and no need for blood typing this could be increased to 100% (a factor of 10!).

This is the potential usage in 1995.   In order to project the numbers forward to 2000 (the date of product release), we must estimate population growth.   The elderly population (65 and older), which currently receives 40% of all acute blood loss transfusions, is expected to double by 2030.   Assuming linear growth, we can expect this age group to grow 14% by 2000.
Similarly, the remaining adult population (under 65), which currently receives 60% of all acute blood loss transfusions, is expected to grow 5.9% by 2030 ((6 – 5.67) / 5.67 = 5.9%).


      # over 65 # under 65
      1995 x 5.67x   (85% / 15% = 5.67)
      2030 2x 3 * 2x   (75% / 25% = 3)

Assuming linear growth, we expect this age group to grow .84% by 2000.

The revised estimates of usage for the year 2000 are as follows:

Potential usage (1995) Change Potential Usage (2000)
Under 65 1,200,000 *1.084 1,300,800
Over 65 800,000 *1.14 912,000


Current Usage Change Potential Usage
Emergency Surgery 1,000,000 *.5 500,000

Due to the fact that many more units will be used in the field, the usage in this category will decline. On the other hand, many more of the trauma victims will survive increasing probability of having emergency surgery.   We estimate that the net of those two changes will mean a 50% decline in potential.

Revised estimates of usage for the year 2000 are as follows:

Potential...

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